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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Volos NFC edge out Panserraikos 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Volos NFC beat Panserraikos 2-1 at Panthessaliko Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.76 xG and Panserraikos 1.09 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.91 / defence 1.07 against Panserraikos attack 0.80 / defence 1.25, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 53% | Draw 23% | Panserraikos 23%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 48%, Panserraikos 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Volos NFC's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Panserraikos's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.14 PPG, Panserraikos 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights