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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Volos NFC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Panserraikos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Volos NFC beat Panserraikos 3-0 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Relegation Round - 5, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.27 xG and Panserraikos 1.22 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Volos NFC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Panserraikos landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.80 / defence 1.20 against Panserraikos attack 0.93 / defence 1.25, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 38% | Draw 27% | Panserraikos 35%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 51%, Panserraikos 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Volos NFC's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Panserraikos's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.00 PPG, Panserraikos 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights