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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Volos NFC edge out Panetolikos 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Volos NFC beat Panetolikos 1-0 at Panthessaliko Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.15 xG and Panetolikos 0.92 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Panetolikos landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against Panetolikos attack 0.78 / defence 0.91, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 41% | Draw 30% | Panetolikos 29%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 48%, Panetolikos 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Volos NFC's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Panetolikos's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.22 PPG, Panetolikos 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights