🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Panetolikos edge out Volos NFC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panetolikos beat Volos NFC 0-1 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 0.82 xG and Panetolikos 1.04 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Volos NFC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.84 / defence 1.26 against Panetolikos attack 0.75 / defence 0.86, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 28% | Draw 32% | Panetolikos 40%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 54%, Panetolikos 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Volos NFC's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Panetolikos's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.00 PPG, Panetolikos 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Panetolikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights