Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Volos NFC face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Volos NFC host Olympiakos Piraeus at Panthessaliko Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 September 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Volos NFC haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Volos NFC's home record at Panthessaliko Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Olympiakos Piraeus haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Olympiakos Piraeus's 1.60 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Volos NFC's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Olympiakos Piraeus have the better historical record — 8 wins from 10 previous contests against 0 for Volos NFC.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Olympiakos Piraeus have won 8 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Volos NFC trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 56% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 53% | Olympiakos Piraeus 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.13 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.969 / defence 1.043 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.093 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.072. Data: 26 Volos NFC games / 26 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 32% | Draw 32% | Olympiakos Piraeus 36%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Volos NFC 60% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 32% | Draw 32% | Olympiakos Piraeus 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Volos NFC 1.13 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.969 / def 1.043 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.093 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at Panthessaliko Stadium.
Where is Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 32% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (10 meetings): Volos NFC 0W | Draws 2 | Olympiakos Piraeus 8W.
What form are Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Volos NFC's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
32%
3.14
32%
3.12
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.35
1.22
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
9%
10.67
12%
8.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.22 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Volos NFC's recent record stands at 9W 5D 18L from 32 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. Volos NFC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus, meanwhile, have gone 19W 9D 4L across 32 games — 2.06 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. Olympiakos Piraeus haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Volos NFC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Volos NFC have managed 5W 5D 6L from 16 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record stands at 9W 5D 2L across 16 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Volos NFC are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.59 scored and 0.53 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 59% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Pre-Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 9W 5D 18L in their last 32 games (1.00 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 19W 9D 4L in their last 32 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.25 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 59%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Olympiakos Piraeus go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Volos NFC
2
Draws
8
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 62%, Olympiakos Piraeus 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Volos NFC) and 38% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 44% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Volos NFC's recent games and 38% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.