Volos NFC 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Volos NFC host Olympiakos Piraeus at Panthessaliko Stadio in Super League 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Volos NFC haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Volos NFC's home record at Panthessaliko Stadio: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Panthessaliko Stadio this season.
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Olympiakos Piraeus haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Volos NFC) versus 1.70 (Olympiakos Piraeus). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Olympiakos Piraeus have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Volos NFC.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 0–3 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Volos NFC trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 58% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 61% | Olympiakos Piraeus 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.50 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.960 / defence 1.067 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.045 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.699 / away 1.376. Data: 26 Volos NFC games / 26 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 36% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 37%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 80% | Olympiakos Piraeus 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 36% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Volos NFC 1.50 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.960 / def 1.067 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.045 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.699 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Volos NFC 0 - 2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 36% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (6 meetings): Volos NFC 0W | Draws 2 | Olympiakos Piraeus 4W.
What form are Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Volos NFC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Volos NFC's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
36%
2.82
28%
3.63
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
3.04
1.53
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
22%
4.64
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
8%
13.06
8%
12.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.1 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.53 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Volos NFC's recent record stands at 8W 9D 16L from 33 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five. Volos NFC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus, meanwhile, have gone 20W 6D 7L across 33 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. Olympiakos Piraeus haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Volos NFC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Volos NFC have managed 5W 4D 7L from 16 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record stands at 8W 4D 4L across 16 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Volos NFC are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.09 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Pre-Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 8W 9D 16L in their last 33 games (1.00 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 20W 6D 7L in their last 33 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.19 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Olympiakos Piraeus go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Volos NFC
2
Draws
8
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 75%, Olympiakos Piraeus 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Volos NFC) and 44% (Olympiakos Piraeus). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Volos NFC's games and 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Volos NFC's matches and 44% of Olympiakos Piraeus's.
Do Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Volos NFC 0-2 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.50 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.53 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Volos NFC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.96 / defence 1.07 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.04 / defence 0.92, drawn from 26/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 36% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 37%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 61%, Olympiakos Piraeus 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.