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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Volos NFC and OFI share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Panthessaliko Stadium, Conference League Group - 1, as Volos NFC and OFI drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.55 xG and OFI 1.34 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.92 / defence 1.14 against OFI attack 1.11 / defence 1.29, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 41% | Draw 28% | OFI 31%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 48%, OFI 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Volos NFC's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

OFI's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.16 PPG, OFI 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights