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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Volos NFC and OFI share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Panthessaliko Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Volos NFC and OFI drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.68 xG and OFI 1.37 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.84 / defence 1.22 against OFI attack 1.02 / defence 1.44, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 45% | Draw 24% | OFI 31%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 49%, OFI 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Volos NFC's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

OFI's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.15 PPG, OFI 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. OFI (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights