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Shock result as Volos NFC defy the odds to beat Levadiakos 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Volos NFC beat Levadiakos 1-0 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Relegation Round - 3, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 0.93 xG and Levadiakos 1.25 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Levadiakos landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.79 / defence 1.22 against Levadiakos attack 0.94 / defence 0.93, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 28% | Draw 29% | Levadiakos 44%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Volos NFC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 39%, Levadiakos 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Volos NFC's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.

Levadiakos's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Volos NFC 0.86 PPG, Levadiakos 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights