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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Volos NFC and Kifisia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Volos NFC and Kifisia finished level at 1-1 at Panthessaliko Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.61 xG and Kifisia 1.25 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Kifisia attack 1.02 / defence 1.23, drawn from 38/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 46% | Draw 24% | Kifisia 30%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 50%, Kifisia 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Volos NFC's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Kifisia's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Volos NFC arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights