🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Kallithea cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Volos NFC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kallithea beat Volos NFC 0-2 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Relegation Round - 9, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.23 xG and Kallithea 1.00 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Volos NFC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Kallithea outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.82 / defence 1.18 against Kallithea attack 0.78 / defence 1.18, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 41% | Draw 29% | Kallithea 30%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Kallithea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 47%, Kallithea 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Volos NFC's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Kallithea's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.15 PPG, Kallithea 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kallithea win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Kallithea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights