Volos NFC 2-0 Ionikos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Ionikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Volos NFC host Ionikos at Panthessaliko Stadio in Super League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Volos NFC — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Panthessaliko Stadio, Volos NFC have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Panthessaliko Stadio this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ionikos stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ionikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Ionikos have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Volos NFC at 1.50 PPG versus Ionikos's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Volos NFC, 0 for Ionikos and 3 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Volos NFC in-play tendencies (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Ionikos in-play tendencies (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 60% versus Ionikos 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 57% | Ionikos 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.33 xG and Ionikos 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 1.012 / defence 1.232 | Ionikos attack 0.943 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 0.998. Data: 30 Volos NFC games / 30 Ionikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 37% | Draw 35% | Ionikos 29%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | Ionikos 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.50. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.50 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Volos NFC 30% | Ionikos 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Ionikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 37% | Draw 35% | Ionikos 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Volos NFC 1.33 / Ionikos 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 1.012 / def 1.232 | Ionikos attack 0.943 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.150 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Ionikos xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Ionikos kick off?
Volos NFC vs Ionikos kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Ionikos?
Volos NFC 2 - 0 Ionikos.
Where is Volos NFC vs Ionikos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Ionikos part of?
Volos NFC vs Ionikos is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Ionikos?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 37% chance of winning, Ionikos a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Ionikos?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Volos NFC and Ionikos will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Ionikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Ionikos?
Record (3 meetings): Volos NFC 0W | Draws 3 | Ionikos 0W.
What form are Volos NFC and Ionikos in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Ionikos (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Volos NFC's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Ionikos's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Ionikos's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
37%
2.71
35%
2.89
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.50
1.16
Ionikos xG
2.71
37%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
8%
13.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Ionikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Ionikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.16 for Ionikos, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Ionikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Volos NFC come into this having played 37 games, going 11W 12D 14L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ionikos sit at 1.24 PPG from 37 outings (12W 10D 15L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ionikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Volos NFC on 1.22 PPG, Ionikos on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Volos NFC's home form reads 7W 4D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Ionikos have taken 1.16 points per game from 19 outings (6W 4D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Volos NFC are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Ionikos are on 1.24 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Early Season
Ionikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Ionikos in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 11W 12D 14L in their last 37 games (1.22 PPG), while Ionikos have gone 12W 10D 15L in their last 37 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Ionikos away?
Volos NFC's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.32 PPG; Ionikos away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Volos NFC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Ionikos specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Volos NFC
3
Draws
0
Ionikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Ionikos?
From 5 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 2, Ionikos have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Ionikos last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2023, when Ionikos 0-1 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Ionikos?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 47%, Ionikos 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Volos NFC) and 47% (Ionikos).
On the defensive side: Volos NFC have failed to score in 32% of games; Ionikos in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Ionikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Ionikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 53% of Ionikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Ionikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Volos NFC's recent games and 47% of Ionikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Ionikos tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Ionikos in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Volos NFC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ionikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Ionikos 2-0 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.33 xG and Ionikos 1.16 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ionikos landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 1.01 / defence 1.23 against Ionikos attack 0.94 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 37% | Draw 35% | Ionikos 29%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 57%, Ionikos 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Ionikos's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.22 PPG, Ionikos 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Ionikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.