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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Volos NFC edge out Asteras Tripolis 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Volos NFC beat Asteras Tripolis 2-1 at Panthessaliko Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.03 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.00 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Volos NFC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.85 / defence 1.12 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.79 / defence 1.00, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 36% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 34%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 49%, Asteras Tripolis 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Volos NFC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.11 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights