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Shock result as Aris Thessalonikis defy the odds to beat Volos NFC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aris Thessalonikis beat Volos NFC 1-2 at Panthessaliko Stadium, Conference League Group - 5, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.16 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.99 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.94 / defence 1.12 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.83 / defence 0.95, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 38% | Draw 34% | Aris Thessalonikis 29%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Aris Thessalonikis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 50%, Aris Thessalonikis 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Volos NFC's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights