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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AEK Athens FC cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Volos NFC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AEK Athens FC beat Volos NFC 2-4 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 0.90 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.18 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Volos NFC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AEK Athens FC outscored their 1.18 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.80 / defence 1.11 against AEK Athens FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.92, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 28% | Draw 30% | AEK Athens FC 42%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 55%, AEK Athens FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Volos NFC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Volos NFC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights