PAS Giannina 0-0 Ionikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAS Giannina at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAS Giannina vs Ionikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAS Giannina host Ionikos at Stadio Zosimades in Super League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAS Giannina — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAS Giannina's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Zosimades this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ionikos stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ionikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ionikos away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PAS Giannina 1.10 PPG, Ionikos 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, PAS Giannina have won 1, Ionikos 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
PAS Giannina in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Ionikos in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 46% versus Ionikos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 43% | Ionikos 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.32 xG and Ionikos 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 1.043 / defence 1.296 | Ionikos attack 0.888 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.013. Data: 47 PAS Giannina games / 47 Ionikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 36% | Draw 35% | Ionikos 29%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | Ionikos 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAS Giannina at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 80% | Ionikos 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Ionikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 36% | Draw 35% | Ionikos 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG PAS Giannina 1.32 / Ionikos 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 1.043 / def 1.296 | Ionikos attack 0.888 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Ionikos xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Ionikos kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Ionikos kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Ionikos?
PAS Giannina 0 - 0 Ionikos.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Ionikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Ionikos part of?
PAS Giannina vs Ionikos is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Ionikos?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 36% chance of winning, Ionikos a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Ionikos?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both PAS Giannina and Ionikos will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Ionikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Ionikos?
Record (3 meetings): PAS Giannina 1W | Draws 2 | Ionikos 0W.
What form are PAS Giannina and Ionikos in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Ionikos (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
PAS Giannina's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Ionikos's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Ionikos's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
36%
2.75
35%
2.88
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.48
1.17
Ionikos xG
2.75
36%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
8%
12.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Ionikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Ionikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.17 for Ionikos, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Ionikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, PAS Giannina have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 14W 17D 23L record — W-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ionikos's form line: 15W 14D 25L from 54 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Ionikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAS Giannina on 1.09 PPG, Ionikos on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, PAS Giannina have posted 1.44 PPG from 27 outings (10W 9D 8L).
On the road, Ionikos have gone 8W 4D 15L from 27 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
PAS Giannina are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Ionikos are on 1.09 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Blended
Ionikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Ionikos in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 14W 17D 23L in their last 54 games (1.09 PPG), while Ionikos have gone 15W 14D 25L in their last 54 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Ionikos away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.44 PPG; Ionikos away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
PAS Giannina's record when hosting Ionikos specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
PAS Giannina
3
Draws
0
Ionikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Ionikos?
From 5 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 2, Ionikos have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Ionikos last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when Ionikos 0-1 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Ionikos?
PAS Giannina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 59%, Ionikos 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (PAS Giannina) and 41% (Ionikos).
On the defensive side: Ionikos in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Ionikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Ionikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 44% of Ionikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs Ionikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 41% of Ionikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Ionikos tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Ionikos in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at PAS Giannina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAS Giannina and Ionikos finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.32 xG and Ionikos 1.17 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. PAS Giannina fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Ionikos landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 1.04 / defence 1.30 against Ionikos attack 0.89 / defence 1.09, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 36% | Draw 35% | Ionikos 29%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 43%, Ionikos 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ionikos's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAS Giannina 1.09 PPG, Ionikos 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Ionikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.