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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant PAOK run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Volos NFC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK beat Volos NFC 3-0 at Toumba Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.50 xG and Volos NFC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Volos NFC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 0.95 / defence 0.70 against Volos NFC attack 1.14 / defence 1.08, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAOK 46% | Draw 29% | Volos NFC 25%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 64%, Volos NFC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAOK's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Volos NFC's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights