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Shock result as Volos NFC defy the odds to beat PAOK 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Volos NFC beat PAOK 1-2 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.95 xG and Volos NFC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. PAOK fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Volos NFC outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.24 / defence 1.04 against Volos NFC attack 0.84 / defence 1.28, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAOK 58% | Draw 22% | Volos NFC 20%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Volos NFC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 68%, Volos NFC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAOK's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Volos NFC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Volos NFC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights