PAOK 3-0 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (54%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as PAOK face Volos NFC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Volos NFC travel to Stadio Toumbas to take on PAOK in Super League 1 (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 27 September 2023 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Guide
PAOK — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
PAOK's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Volos NFC stand at 0W 2D 8L — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
Volos NFC's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, PAOK have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
PAOK hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 0 for Volos NFC and 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 8 May 2023, ended PAOK 2–0 Volos NFC — a PAOK win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both PAOK and goals — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
PAOK trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Volos NFC trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 42% versus Volos NFC 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 49% | Volos NFC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.59 xG and Volos NFC 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 0.970 / defence 0.762 | Volos NFC attack 0.869 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.137. PAOK have a tight defence (rating 0.762), which is pulling Volos NFC's projected output down. Data: built from PAOK's last 31 games and Volos NFC's last 31.
Result probabilities: PAOK 54% | Draw 32% | Volos NFC 14%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.86 | Draw 3.13 | Volos NFC 7.06. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — low conviction — though recent form (PAOK's last 10 home games and Volos NFC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAOK 40% (last 10 home games) | Volos NFC 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 6 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 September 2023 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 54% | Draw 32% | Volos NFC 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG PAOK 1.59 / Volos NFC 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 0.970 / def 0.762 | Volos NFC attack 0.869 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: PAOK (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Volos NFC xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAOK vs Volos NFC FAQs
What time does PAOK vs Volos NFC kick off?
PAOK vs Volos NFC kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Wednesday 27 September 2023 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Volos NFC?
PAOK 3 - 0 Volos NFC.
Where is PAOK vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Volos NFC part of?
PAOK vs Volos NFC is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 6) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 54% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 14% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both PAOK and Volos NFC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will PAOK vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PAOK's attack rating (0.97) and Volos NFC's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from PAOK's last 31 games and Volos NFC's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
54%
1.86
32%
3.13
14%
7.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.34
0.75
Volos NFC xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
7.06
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
3%
34.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 11.5 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAOK vs Volos NFC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are PAOK and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for PAOK and 0.75 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, PAOK have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 22W 11D 8L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Volos NFC's form line: 11W 9D 21L from 41 games, 1.02 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Volos NFC.
Venue Form
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 20 home games (12W 4D 4L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 6W 6D 8L from their last 20 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PAOK are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.00 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Early Season
Volos NFC
Early Season
PAOK (Home) vs Volos NFC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAOK
Early Season
Volos NFC
Early Season
❓ PAOK vs Volos NFC Form FAQs
What form are PAOK and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 22W 11D 8L in their last 41 games (1.88 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 11W 9D 21L in their last 41 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Volos NFC away?
PAOK's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.00 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.20 PPG.
Have PAOK or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2022. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Jan 2024, when PAOK won Volos NFC 1-5 PAOK.
PAOK's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
PAOK
0
Draws
2
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ PAOK vs Volos NFC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Volos NFC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, PAOK have won 8, Volos NFC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Volos NFC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: Volos NFC 2-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Volos NFC?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — PAOK 40% BTTS, Volos NFC 30%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (PAOK) and 50% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Volos NFC in 40%; Volos NFC in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAOK vs Volos NFC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAOK and Volos NFC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of PAOK's recent matches and 30% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PAOK and Volos NFC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of PAOK's recent games and 50% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Volos NFC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of PAOK's recent matches and 60% of Volos NFC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAOK run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Volos NFC 3-0 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.59 xG and Volos NFC 0.75 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 0.97 / defence 0.76 against Volos NFC attack 0.87 / defence 1.03, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 54% | Draw 32% | Volos NFC 14%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 49%, Volos NFC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Volos NFC's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.