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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant PAOK run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Panserraikos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK beat Panserraikos 4-1 at Toumba Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 2.67 xG and Panserraikos 0.48 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.32 / defence 0.66 against Panserraikos attack 0.67 / defence 1.46, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAOK 84% | Draw 12% | Panserraikos 5%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 84%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 67%, Panserraikos 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAOK's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Panserraikos's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Panserraikos (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights