PAOK 3-2 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs Panserraikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panserraikos make the trip to Stadio Toumbas to face PAOK in Super League 1, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
PAOK (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. PAOK haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
PAOK's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Toumbas this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Panserraikos have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Panserraikos haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Panserraikos have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward PAOK. A 0.50 PPG lead over Panserraikos (2.00 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAOK lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2024, ended 2–0 with PAOK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Panserraikos half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 58% versus Panserraikos 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 70% | Panserraikos 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.89 xG and Panserraikos 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.068 / defence 0.957 | Panserraikos attack 0.957 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.699 / away 1.376. Data: 26 PAOK games / 26 Panserraikos games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: PAOK 51% | Draw 26% | Panserraikos 24%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Panserraikos 4.17. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: PAOK 60% | Panserraikos 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 51% | Draw 26% | Panserraikos 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG PAOK 1.89 / Panserraikos 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.068 / def 0.957 | Panserraikos attack 0.957 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.699 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: PAOK (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Panserraikos xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Panserraikos kick off?
PAOK vs Panserraikos kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Panserraikos?
PAOK 3 - 2 Panserraikos.
Where is PAOK vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Panserraikos part of?
PAOK vs Panserraikos is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 51% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both PAOK and Panserraikos will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Panserraikos?
Record (2 meetings): PAOK 2W | Draws 0 | Panserraikos 0W.
What form are PAOK and Panserraikos in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. PAOK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from PAOK's attack rating (1.07) and Panserraikos's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Panserraikos's attack (0.96x) against PAOK's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
51%
1.98
26%
3.91
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
PAOK xG
Total xG
3.15
1.26
Panserraikos xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
15%
6.62
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
4%
27.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are PAOK and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for PAOK and 1.26 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Panserraikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAOK come into this having played 33 games, going 23W 5D 5L for 2.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. PAOK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Panserraikos sit at 1.15 PPG from 33 outings (9W 11D 13L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five. Panserraikos haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.09 PPG clear of Panserraikos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
PAOK's home form reads 12W 2D 2L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Panserraikos have taken 0.62 points per game from 16 outings (2W 4D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panserraikos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 2.48 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 1.12 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Pre-Season
Panserraikos
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 23W 5D 5L in their last 33 games (2.24 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 9W 11D 13L in their last 33 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Panserraikos away?
PAOK's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.38 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.62 PPG.
Have PAOK or Panserraikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Panserraikos in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: PAOK have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 5-0 on 25 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Panserraikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
PAOK
0
Draws
0
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Panserraikos?
From 6 meetings on record, PAOK have won 6, Panserraikos have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Panserraikos last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when PAOK 4-1 Panserraikos.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Panserraikos?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 44%, Panserraikos 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (PAOK) and 38% (Panserraikos).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Panserraikos in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Panserraikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of PAOK's recent matches and 31% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Panserraikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of PAOK's recent games and 38% of Panserraikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Panserraikos tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Panserraikos in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Panserraikos 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Panserraikos 3-2 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.89 xG and Panserraikos 1.26 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.07 / defence 0.96 against Panserraikos attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 26/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 51% | Draw 26% | Panserraikos 24%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 70%, Panserraikos 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Panserraikos's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. PAOK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panserraikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.