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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PAOK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Panathinaikos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK beat Panathinaikos 2-0 at Toumba Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.99 xG and Panathinaikos 0.91 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Panathinaikos landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.33 / defence 0.71 against Panathinaikos attack 1.12 / defence 1.06, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAOK 62% | Draw 21% | Panathinaikos 16%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 67%, Panathinaikos 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAOK's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Panathinaikos's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAOK 1.93 PPG, Panathinaikos 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights