🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as PAOK defy the odds to beat Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK beat Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 at Stadio Toumbas, Championship Round - 2, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.14 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.34 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.40 / defence 0.95 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.29 / defence 0.64, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAOK 32% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 41%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual PAOK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 68%, Olympiakos Piraeus 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAOK's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAOK 2.05 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights