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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant PAOK run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Kifisia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK beat Kifisia 3-0 at Toumba Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.71 xG and Kifisia 0.95 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kifisia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.08 / defence 0.68 against Kifisia attack 1.12 / defence 1.10, drawn from 36/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAOK 55% | Draw 24% | Kifisia 21%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 60%, Kifisia 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAOK's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.

Kifisia's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 90% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Kifisia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights