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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as PAOK defy the odds to beat Atromitos 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK beat Atromitos 1-0 at Toumba Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.03 xG and Atromitos 1.05 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atromitos landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.08 / defence 0.88 against Atromitos attack 1.16 / defence 0.86, drawn from 27/27 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it PAOK 34% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 35%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual PAOK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 67%, Atromitos 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAOK's trading profile (33 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Atromitos's trading profile (33 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights