PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Toumba Stadium plays host to PAOK versus Asteras Tripolis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 31 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAOK have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Toumba Stadium, PAOK have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — PAOK are significantly better at Toumba Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Asteras Tripolis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Asteras Tripolis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for PAOK against 1.70 for Asteras Tripolis. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours PAOK, who have won 7 of the last 10 meetings against Asteras Tripolis — a 3D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with PAOK winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both PAOK and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
PAOK — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 46% versus Asteras Tripolis 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 60% | Asteras Tripolis 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 2.02 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.310 / defence 0.807 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.070 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 0.998. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.310 — their λ of 2.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 29 PAOK games / 29 Asteras Tripolis games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: PAOK 61% | Draw 26% | Asteras Tripolis 12%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | Asteras Tripolis 8.33. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (61%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: PAOK 30% | Asteras Tripolis 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Toumba Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 61% | Draw 26% | Asteras Tripolis 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG PAOK 2.02 / Asteras Tripolis 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.310 / def 0.807 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.070 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.484 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: PAOK (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Asteras Tripolis xG
53%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Toumba Stadium.
Where is PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Toumba Stadium.
What competition is PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 61% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 12% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both PAOK and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (10 meetings): PAOK 7W | Draws 3 | Asteras Tripolis 0W.
What form are PAOK and Asteras Tripolis in?
PAOK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.31x the league average against Asteras Tripolis's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (1.07x) against PAOK's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
61%
1.63
26%
3.79
12%
8.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.88
0.86
Asteras Tripolis xG
1.63
61%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
8.16
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
13%
7.51
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
2%
61.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are PAOK and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for PAOK and 0.86 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAOK's recent record stands at 20W 10D 5L from 35 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Asteras Tripolis, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 15L across 35 games — 1.09 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Asteras Tripolis heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, PAOK have managed 13W 4D 0L from 17 games — 2.53 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — PAOK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Asteras Tripolis's away record stands at 3W 6D 8L across 17 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.03 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Early Season
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 20W 10D 5L in their last 35 games (2.00 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 9W 11D 15L in their last 35 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
PAOK's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.53 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.88 PPG.
Have PAOK or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
PAOK
3
Draws
0
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 7, Asteras Tripolis have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when PAOK 2-0 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Asteras Tripolis?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 29%, Asteras Tripolis 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (PAOK) and 41% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis in 35%; Asteras Tripolis in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of PAOK's recent matches and 47% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of PAOK's recent games and 41% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.