PAOK 2-1 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Toumba Stadium plays host to PAOK versus Asteras Tripolis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 1 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAOK have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Toumba Stadium, PAOK have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium.
Asteras Tripolis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for PAOK against 1.30 for Asteras Tripolis. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours PAOK, who have won 6 of the last 9 meetings against Asteras Tripolis — a 3D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with PAOK winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both PAOK and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
PAOK — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 50% versus Asteras Tripolis 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 62% | Asteras Tripolis 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 2.23 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.082 / defence 1.068 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.096 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.084. Asteras Tripolis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing PAOK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 PAOK games / 34 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 58% | Draw 23% | Asteras Tripolis 20%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Asteras Tripolis 5.00. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.49 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 40% | Asteras Tripolis 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Toumba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 58% | Draw 23% | Asteras Tripolis 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG PAOK 2.23 / Asteras Tripolis 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.082 / def 1.068 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.096 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: PAOK (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Asteras Tripolis xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Toumba Stadium.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
PAOK 2 - 1 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Toumba Stadium.
What competition is PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 58% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both PAOK and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (9 meetings): PAOK 6W | Draws 3 | Asteras Tripolis 0W.
What form are PAOK and Asteras Tripolis in?
PAOK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.08x the league average against Asteras Tripolis's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (1.10x) against PAOK's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.39
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
PAOK xG
Total xG
3.49
1.27
Asteras Tripolis xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
11%
9.26
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
2%
47.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are PAOK and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for PAOK and 1.27 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAOK's recent record stands at 23W 10D 7L from 40 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Asteras Tripolis, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 16L across 40 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 0.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Asteras Tripolis heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, PAOK have managed 14W 4D 1L from 19 games — 2.42 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.98 PPG overall — PAOK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Asteras Tripolis's away record stands at 3W 7D 9L across 19 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.05 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 23W 10D 7L in their last 40 games (1.98 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 10W 14D 16L in their last 40 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
PAOK's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.42 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.84 PPG.
Have PAOK or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
PAOK go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
PAOK
3
Draws
0
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 7, Asteras Tripolis have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when PAOK 2-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Asteras Tripolis?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 37%, Asteras Tripolis 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (PAOK) and 47% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 63% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis in 32%; Asteras Tripolis in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of PAOK's recent matches and 53% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of PAOK's recent games and 47% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Asteras Tripolis 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Asteras Tripolis 2-1 at Toumba Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 2.23 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.27 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.08 / defence 1.07 against Asteras Tripolis attack 1.10 / defence 1.25, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 58% | Draw 23% | Asteras Tripolis 20%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 62%, Asteras Tripolis 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.