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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PAOK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Asteras Tripolis.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK beat Asteras Tripolis 2-0 at Toumba Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 2.23 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.51 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.28 / defence 0.64 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.73 / defence 1.25, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAOK 77% | Draw 17% | Asteras Tripolis 7%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 77%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 64%, Asteras Tripolis 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAOK's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights