PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 73%, yet in-form Aris Thessalonikis provide a compelling counter-argument — this PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis make the trip to Toumba Stadium to face PAOK in Super League 1, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAOK have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Toumba Stadium, PAOK have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — PAOK are significantly better at Toumba Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Aris Thessalonikis are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAOK lead 4W to 3W over the last 10 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
PAOK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 46% versus Aris Thessalonikis 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 60% | Aris Thessalonikis 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 2.60 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.297 / defence 0.810 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.077 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 0.962. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.297 — their λ of 2.60 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Aris Thessalonikis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing PAOK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 PAOK games / 29 Aris Thessalonikis games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: PAOK 73% | Draw 19% | Aris Thessalonikis 8%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.37 | Draw 5.26 | Aris Thessalonikis 12.50. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (73%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Aris Thessalonikis (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: PAOK 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Toumba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 73% | Draw 19% | Aris Thessalonikis 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 55% | xG PAOK 2.60 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.297 / def 0.810 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.077 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.545 / away 0.962 • Poisson stance: PAOK (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.60
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Aris Thessalonikis xG
55%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Sunday 13 September 2026 at Toumba Stadium.
Where is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Toumba Stadium.
What competition is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 73% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 8% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (10 meetings): PAOK 4W | Draws 3 | Aris Thessalonikis 3W.
What form are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis in?
PAOK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.30x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (1.08x) against PAOK's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
73%
1.37
19%
5.18
8%
13.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.60
PAOK xG
Total xG
3.44
0.84
Aris Thessalonikis xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
13.04
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
7%
13.48
Win to Nil
32%
3.17
1%
175.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 2.60 expected goals for PAOK and 0.84 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, PAOK have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 20W 10D 5L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 13W 13D 9L from 35 games, 1.49 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aris Thessalonikis.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.53 PPG from 17 outings (13W 4D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — PAOK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 6W 4D 7L from 17 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.11 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Early Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 20W 10D 5L in their last 35 games (2.00 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 13W 13D 9L in their last 35 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
PAOK's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.53 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.29 PPG.
Have PAOK or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
3
Draws
3
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 29%, Aris Thessalonikis 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (PAOK) and 41% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of PAOK's recent matches and 47% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of PAOK's recent games and 41% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.