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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Panserraikos run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Volos NFC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panserraikos beat Volos NFC 3-0 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Relegation Round - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.43 xG and Volos NFC 1.16 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Panserraikos beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Volos NFC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 1.00 / defence 1.25 against Volos NFC attack 0.85 / defence 1.12, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 43% | Draw 26% | Volos NFC 31%, with Panserraikos to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 53%, Volos NFC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panserraikos's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Volos NFC's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panserraikos 1.11 PPG, Volos NFC 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panserraikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panserraikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights