Panserraikos 2-1 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panserraikos at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Relegation Round - 5 as Panserraikos welcome PAS Giannina to Dimotiko Stadio Serron. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panserraikos have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Panserraikos's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Dimotiko Stadio Serron this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PAS Giannina — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
PAS Giannina's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Panserraikos) versus 0.70 (PAS Giannina). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Panserraikos register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, PAS Giannina in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Panserraikos, 0 for PAS Giannina and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2024, ended 2–0 with Panserraikos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Panserraikos trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
PAS Giannina trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 47% versus PAS Giannina 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 43% | PAS Giannina 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 1.45 xG and PAS Giannina 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 0.717 / defence 1.062 | PAS Giannina attack 0.940 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.361. Panserraikos's attack strength of 0.717 is below the league average — the 1.45 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PAS Giannina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Panserraikos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Panserraikos games / 52 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 37% | Draw 30% | PAS Giannina 33%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | PAS Giannina 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panserraikos are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panserraikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Panserraikos 60% | PAS Giannina 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 37% | Draw 30% | PAS Giannina 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Panserraikos 1.45 / PAS Giannina 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 0.717 / def 1.062 | PAS Giannina attack 0.940 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Panserraikos (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
1.36
PAS Giannina xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina?
Panserraikos 2 - 1 PAS Giannina.
Where is Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina part of?
Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 37% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Panserraikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Panserraikos and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and PAS Giannina?
Record (2 meetings): Panserraikos 2W | Draws 0 | PAS Giannina 0W.
What form are Panserraikos and PAS Giannina in?
Panserraikos (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. PAS Giannina (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Panserraikos's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against PAS Giannina's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus Panserraikos's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panserraikos Win
37%
2.69
30%
3.36
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.81
1.36
PAS Giannina xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
10%
10.47
8%
12.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.36 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panserraikos come into this having played 30 games, going 7W 11D 12L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, PAS Giannina sit at 0.63 PPG from 30 outings (3W 10D 17L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Panserraikos carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of PAS Giannina — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Panserraikos's home form reads 5W 7D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, PAS Giannina have taken 0.47 points per game from 15 outings (1W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panserraikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Panserraikos are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 0.93 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Current Season
PAS Giannina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panserraikos and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 7W 11D 12L in their last 30 games (1.07 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 3W 10D 17L in their last 30 (0.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or PAS Giannina away?
Panserraikos's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 1.47 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Panserraikos have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Panserraikos's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Panserraikos
0
Draws
0
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and PAS Giannina?
From 3 meetings on record, Panserraikos have won 3, PAS Giannina have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Panserraikos 2-1 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and PAS Giannina?
Panserraikos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panserraikos 60%, PAS Giannina 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Panserraikos) and 67% (PAS Giannina). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panserraikos have failed to score in 27% of games; PAS Giannina in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panserraikos play PAS Giannina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Panserraikos's games and 67% of PAS Giannina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Panserraikos's matches and 67% of PAS Giannina's.
Do Panserraikos and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
Panserraikos have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panserraikos edge out PAS Giannina 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panserraikos beat PAS Giannina 2-1 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Relegation Round - 5, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.45 xG and PAS Giannina 1.36 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.72 / defence 1.06 against PAS Giannina attack 0.94 / defence 1.24, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 37% | Draw 30% | PAS Giannina 33%, with Panserraikos to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 43%, PAS Giannina 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Panserraikos arrived the stronger side — 1.07 PPG against 0.63. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.