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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant PAOK run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Panserraikos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK beat Panserraikos 0-5 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.05 xG and PAOK 1.74 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Panserraikos fell 1.1 short of their projected output. PAOK outscored their 1.74 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.78 / defence 1.08 against PAOK attack 1.29 / defence 0.93, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 22% | Draw 25% | PAOK 53%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 55%, PAOK 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panserraikos's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

PAOK's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights