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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Panserraikos and Panetolikos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panserraikos and Panetolikos finished level at 1-1 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Relegation Group - 9, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 0.92 xG and Panetolikos 1.12 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.79 / defence 1.25 against Panetolikos attack 0.84 / defence 0.90, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 28% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 38%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 59%, Panetolikos 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panserraikos's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Panetolikos's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panserraikos 0.93 PPG, Panetolikos 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights