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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Panserraikos and Panathinaikos share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 18, as Panserraikos and Panathinaikos drew 2-2 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 0.86 xG and Panathinaikos 1.32 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Panserraikos beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 1.00 / defence 1.20 against Panathinaikos attack 0.93 / defence 0.71, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 24% | Draw 28% | Panathinaikos 47%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 50%, Panathinaikos 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panserraikos's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Panathinaikos's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights