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Shock result as OFI defy the odds to beat Panserraikos 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OFI beat Panserraikos 0-1 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.29 xG and OFI 1.12 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panserraikos fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 1.02 / defence 1.07 against OFI attack 1.03 / defence 1.00, drawn from 27/26 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 40% | Draw 28% | OFI 32%, with Panserraikos to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual OFI win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 56%, OFI 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panserraikos's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

OFI's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panserraikos 1.12 PPG, OFI 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. OFI (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights