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Levadiakos cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Panserraikos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levadiakos beat Panserraikos 0-2 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 0.79 xG and Levadiakos 2.01 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.59 / defence 1.48 against Levadiakos attack 1.19 / defence 0.95, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 14% | Draw 20% | Levadiakos 66%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 60%, Levadiakos 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panserraikos's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Levadiakos's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Levadiakos arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Levadiakos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights