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Prediction vindicated as Levadiakos edge out Panserraikos 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levadiakos beat Panserraikos 0-1 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Relegation Round - 9, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.23 xG and Levadiakos 1.25 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panserraikos fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 1.00 / defence 1.24 against Levadiakos attack 0.92 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 36% | Draw 27% | Levadiakos 37%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 65%, Levadiakos 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panserraikos's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Levadiakos's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panserraikos 1.09 PPG, Levadiakos 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Levadiakos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights