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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Larisa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Panserraikos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Larisa beat Panserraikos 0-2 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.40 xG and Larisa 1.05 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Panserraikos fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Larisa outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.89 / defence 0.99 against Larisa attack 0.83 / defence 1.04, drawn from 33/7 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 44% | Draw 28% | Larisa 27%, with Panserraikos to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Larisa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 43%, Larisa 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panserraikos's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Larisa's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panserraikos 0.71 PPG, Larisa 0.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Larisa win broke the near-deadlock. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Larisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights