Panserraikos 2-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Panserraikos (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Panserraikos face Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Lamia travel to Dimotiko Stadio Serron to take on Panserraikos. The game is scheduled for Monday 20 January 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panserraikos stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panserraikos have posted 3W 3D 4L at Dimotiko Stadio Serron — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lamia — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Panserraikos carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Panserraikos: 3 wins from 3 previous clashes against 0 for Lamia, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with Panserraikos winning.
The historical record gives Panserraikos a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Panserraikos in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Lamia in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 51% versus Lamia 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 51% | Lamia 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 1.44 xG and Lamia 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 1.102 / defence 1.276 | Lamia attack 0.793 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.133. Data: 44 Panserraikos games / 44 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 44% | Draw 26% | Lamia 30%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Lamia 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panserraikos are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panserraikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Panserraikos 60% | Lamia 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Monday 20 Jan 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 44% | Draw 26% | Lamia 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Panserraikos 1.44 / Lamia 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 1.102 / def 1.276 | Lamia attack 0.793 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Panserraikos (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Lamia xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panserraikos vs Lamia kick off?
Panserraikos vs Lamia kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 20 January 2025 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs Lamia?
Panserraikos 2 - 0 Lamia.
Where is Panserraikos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs Lamia part of?
Panserraikos vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 44% chance of winning, Lamia a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Panserraikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Panserraikos and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Panserraikos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Lamia?
Record (3 meetings): Panserraikos 3W | Draws 0 | Lamia 0W.
What form are Panserraikos and Lamia in?
Panserraikos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Lamia (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Panserraikos's attack at 1.10x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Panserraikos's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panserraikos Win
44%
2.29
26%
3.82
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.58
1.15
Lamia xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
7%
13.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.4 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.15 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Panserraikos have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 14W 14D 23L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamia's form line: 9W 13D 29L from 51 games, 0.78 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panserraikos on 1.10 PPG, Lamia on 0.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Panserraikos have posted 1.44 PPG from 25 outings (9W 9D 7L).
On the road, Lamia have gone 4W 7D 14L from 25 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panserraikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Panserraikos are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.98 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panserraikos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 14W 14D 23L in their last 51 games (1.10 PPG), while Lamia have gone 9W 13D 29L in their last 51 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or Lamia away?
Panserraikos's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 1.44 PPG; Lamia away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Panserraikos and Lamia runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Panserraikos's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Panserraikos
1
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Lamia?
From 6 meetings on record, Panserraikos have won 4, Lamia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Lamia 2-1 Panserraikos.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and Lamia?
Panserraikos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panserraikos 60%, Lamia 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Panserraikos) and 60% (Lamia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lamia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panserraikos play Lamia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Panserraikos's games and 60% of Lamia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panserraikos vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Panserraikos's matches and 60% of Lamia's.
Do Panserraikos and Lamia tend to score early?
Panserraikos have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Lamia in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panserraikos cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panserraikos beat Lamia 2-0 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.44 xG and Lamia 1.15 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lamia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 1.10 / defence 1.28 against Lamia attack 0.79 / defence 1.09, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 44% | Draw 26% | Lamia 30%, with Panserraikos to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 51%, Lamia 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Lamia's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panserraikos 1.10 PPG, Lamia 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panserraikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panserraikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.