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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Kifisia defy the odds to beat Panserraikos 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kifisia beat Panserraikos 1-2 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Relegation Group - 7, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.35 xG and Kifisia 1.12 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Kifisia outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.78 / defence 1.27 against Kifisia attack 0.83 / defence 1.32, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 40% | Draw 31% | Kifisia 29%, with Panserraikos to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Kifisia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 56%, Kifisia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panserraikos's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Kifisia's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panserraikos 0.88 PPG, Kifisia 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kifisia win broke the near-deadlock. Kifisia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights