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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Panserraikos defy the odds to beat Kifisia 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panserraikos beat Kifisia 2-1 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 0.88 xG and Kifisia 1.66 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Panserraikos beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.58 / defence 1.42 against Kifisia attack 1.03 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 19% | Draw 26% | Kifisia 55%, with Kifisia to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Panserraikos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 56%, Kifisia 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panserraikos's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did.

Kifisia's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Kifisia arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.31. Form was overturned, with Panserraikos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Panserraikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights