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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Panserraikos cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kallithea.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panserraikos beat Kallithea 3-1 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Relegation Round - 3, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.50 xG and Kallithea 1.07 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Panserraikos beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 1.00 / defence 1.29 against Kallithea attack 0.76 / defence 1.18, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 47% | Draw 26% | Kallithea 27%, with Panserraikos to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 64%, Kallithea 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panserraikos's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Kallithea's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panserraikos 1.04 PPG, Kallithea 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panserraikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panserraikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Kallithea (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights