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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Panserraikos edge out Kallithea 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panserraikos beat Kallithea 2-1 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.38 xG and Kallithea 1.11 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.95 / defence 1.30 against Kallithea attack 0.72 / defence 1.13, drawn from 50/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 43% | Draw 27% | Kallithea 30%, with Panserraikos to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 62%, Kallithea 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panserraikos's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Kallithea's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panserraikos 0.92 PPG, Kallithea 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panserraikos win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights