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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Atromitos run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Panserraikos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atromitos beat Panserraikos 0-4 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Relegation Group - 4, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 0.82 xG and Atromitos 1.26 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Panserraikos fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Atromitos outscored their 1.26 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.76 / defence 1.29 against Atromitos attack 0.92 / defence 0.82, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 22% | Draw 33% | Atromitos 45%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 59%, Atromitos 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panserraikos's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Atromitos's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panserraikos 0.98 PPG, Atromitos 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights