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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Panserraikos and Atromitos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 4, as Panserraikos and Atromitos drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 0.94 xG and Atromitos 1.17 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.88 / defence 1.02 against Atromitos attack 0.99 / defence 0.85, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 29% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 41%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 57%, Atromitos 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panserraikos's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Atromitos's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panserraikos 1.03 PPG, Atromitos 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights