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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Panserraikos edge out Asteras Tripolis 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panserraikos beat Asteras Tripolis 2-1 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.17 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.95 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Panserraikos beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.85 / defence 1.01 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.80 / defence 1.05, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 40% | Draw 32% | Asteras Tripolis 29%, with Panserraikos to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 54%, Asteras Tripolis 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panserraikos's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panserraikos 1.03 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panserraikos win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights