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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Panserraikos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AEK Athens FC beat Panserraikos 0-4 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 0.73 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.92 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. AEK Athens FC outscored their 1.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.69 / defence 1.31 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.29 / defence 0.76, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 14% | Draw 21% | AEK Athens FC 65%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 59%, AEK Athens FC 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panserraikos's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights