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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Volos NFC defy the odds to beat Panetolikos 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Volos NFC beat Panetolikos 1-2 at Panetolikos Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.16 xG and Volos NFC 0.90 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Volos NFC outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.84 / defence 1.11 against Volos NFC attack 0.86 / defence 1.13, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 42% | Draw 30% | Volos NFC 28%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Volos NFC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 24%, Volos NFC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panetolikos's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Volos NFC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.34 PPG, Volos NFC 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights