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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Volos NFC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Panetolikos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Volos NFC beat Panetolikos 0-3 at Stadio Panetolikou, Relegation Round - 7, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.15 xG and Volos NFC 0.79 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Panetolikos fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Volos NFC outscored their 0.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.81 / defence 0.85 against Volos NFC attack 0.85 / defence 1.12, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 44% | Draw 31% | Volos NFC 25%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Volos NFC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 37%, Volos NFC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panetolikos's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Volos NFC's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.15 PPG, Volos NFC 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights