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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Panetolikos 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK beat Panetolikos 0-1 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.03 xG and PAOK 1.84 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panetolikos fell 1.0 short of their projected output. PAOK landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against PAOK attack 1.52 / defence 0.86, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 21% | Draw 23% | PAOK 56%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 47%, PAOK 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panetolikos's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

PAOK's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights