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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Panetolikos edge out Panserraikos 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panetolikos beat Panserraikos 1-0 at Stadio Panetolikou, Relegation Round - 10, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.27 xG and Panserraikos 0.88 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Panserraikos landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.82 / defence 0.86 against Panserraikos attack 0.94 / defence 1.22, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 46% | Draw 29% | Panserraikos 26%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 40%, Panserraikos 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Panetolikos's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Panserraikos's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.19 PPG, Panserraikos 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights